The
new Barclays Premier League season kicks off this weekend. Yes, it has only
been a couple of months since Aguero’s injury time winner sealed the title for
City and we’ve all had other sporting events to occupy our minds’; the Euros,
the golf, the Olympics, but nothing quite makes up for the absence of Premier
League football from our weekly schedule. What is only a twelve week break can
seem like an eternity, however, the wait is finally over.
Last
season saw, arguably, the most exciting Premier League campaign in history.
Particularly in regards to the title race, with Manchester City leaving it
until the last minute of injury time, on the final day of the campaign, to
secure the Premier League crown for the Blue half of Manchester for the first
time in the club’s history. The race for fourth place was also a hard fought
affair between Spurs, Newcastle and Chelsea. It was won by Tottenham, although
it proved to be immaterial in the end as Chelsea’s victory in the Champions’
League final secured them a place in this year’s elite European competition, at
the expense of their rivals from North London.
As
is normally the case, the relegation battle went right down to the wire again
last term. Wolves were the first to go, a few weeks before the close of play,
with Blackburn Rovers being sent down before the final day too. However, Bolton
and Q.P.R. played out their final
matches desperate to get the points that would keep one side up at the other’s
expense. In the end, controversial decisions went against Bolton at the
Britannia and they ended up drawing 2-2 with Stoke. That result was enough to
see Rangers stay up despite a final day defeat at the hands of Manchester City.
So,
to the upcoming campaign and instantly so many questions spring to mind. Can
City win back to back titles? Will Ferguson’s empire strike back or will it
finally crumble? Will di Matteo be able to bring success to Chelsea over the
course of a full season? Can Villas Boas find redemption at Spurs? Will the new
boys, Southampton, Reading and West Ham go straight back down? Have Wenger’s
signings addressed Arsenal’s problems? Can Newcastle build on last season or
will they come unstuck with Europa League commitments? Is Steve Clarke a
manager? Which team will surprise us all? Can Norwich and Swansea survive
without Lambert and Rodgers? Will Brendan Rodgers restore Anfield to its
fortress-like past? Does Moyes finally have a squad that can compete for the full
campaign? These are just some of the posers that I’m looking forward to seeing
answered over the coming ten months or so.
At
this point, however, we have no real basis to provide well informed argument
about how things may turn out this season. Many teams, as alluded to above,
have brought in new managers and staff, other teams have lost managers and
staff, all clubs have made changes in playing personnel (both coming in and
moving out)- many of whom will be making their Premier League bows- and, of course,
there are three new teams who’ll be involved in the action.
All
of that being said, we’re only four days away from kick-off which means that
it’s time to make some pre-season predictions, if only to return to this page
at a later date for amusement purposes. In this first part of the season
preview I’ll cast my eyes over those teams who are serious contenders for the
top six places come next May.
Looking
at last year, which is obviously the basis for most pre-season predictions
coupled with any transfer activity which
has already occurred, it is going to take a hell of a lot for any club
to catch Manchester City this year. I know Mancini’s men only just pipped
United last year, however, this year could well prove to be more comfortable.
Having got that first title under their belts’ and proved to themselves that
they have got what it takes to be champions, I can see the Citizens going on to
record back to back Premier League titles.
Whilst
City haven’t yet made any “marquee” signings, last year proved that their squad
was much stronger than their rivals from across town. The arrival of Jack Rodwell is an interesting
acquisition, which will add flair and unpredictability when required and there
is every chance that others will be ushered in to Eastlands before the transfer
window closes. The European fixture list is weighted in favour of Mancini’s
team this year, with five home games out of six following Champions’ League
group matches compared to five out of six away for Ferguson’s men. From my vantage point safely here in
pre-season, this year’s Premier League is Manchester City’s to lose.
Manchester
United performed remarkably well last year given the circumstances. As
mentioned above City had much more strength in depth, however Ferguson managed
to get the utmost from his players yet again as they recorded 89 points. Had it
not been for their own shortcomings in the final weeks of the season, the Scot
would surely have seen his side win the title again.
United have problems though which, as far as I
can see, have not been fixed. Kagawa has been signed and is certainly a quality
player, however, he is another along with Welbeck and Rooney who operates best
as a second striker. A central midfielder remains a priority as Paul Scholes,
now 38, surely cannot be expected to play week in week out. Patrice Evra is
long past his best at left-back and Rio Ferdinand is surely on his way out too,
certainly on last year’s form. Ferguson did an unbelievable job getting what he
did from his squad last season, he may not be able to do any more this time
around, especially with the club’s financial position limiting transfer funds.
Although the signing of Robin van Persie certainly adds fire power, it may be
in the wrong area of the pitch.
Three
of the clubs who’ll be vying for the top four have got new managers at the
helm. Tottenham finished fourth last term for the second time in three seasons,
however that didn’t stop them getting rid of Harry Redknapp and replacing him
with Andre Villas Boas. AVB had a torrid time at Chelsea, upsetting just about
everybody from the star players to the tea ladies, however, Spurs fans will be
hoping that he’s learnt a lesson from that experience and that he can add to
the success alresy achieved at White Hart Lane.
He’ll
have his work cut out for him though, as Harry Redknapp achieved Tottenham’s
three highest ever Premier League finishes in his time in charge and, given
their contrasting man management styles, the players may have a tough job
adapting to the new man’s style. Spurs have brought in Gylfi Sigurdsson who
could prove to be an astute buy, however, they could well lose Modric to Real
Madrid and even if they don’t AVB may have a job on to get the Croat to produce
his best for the club. Adebayor is almost certain to leave as the player’s wage
demands look likely to scupper any permanent deal. Given that Redknapp had them
over-performing, in my opinion, and that the change in approach is likely to be
so different, I think Tottenham could be battling for top six rather than top
four come next Spring.
Chelsea
also have a new man at the helm, former interim boss Roberto di Matteo. This is
interesting because di Matteo came in after AVB
was sacked, early in 2012, and did a great job in guiding the club to
both FA Cup and Champions’ League glory, albeit by sacrificing any kind of
attacking intent. However, Chelsea’s league form under him was actually worse
than it had been under his Portuguese predecessor and now the Italian will have
to address the problem of doing well over a 38 game season, as opposed to
getting the team ready for show-piece occasions.
Added
to this new problem are two further worries. Firstly: it was pretty obvious
from the manner of his appointment that he was by no means Roman Abramovic’s
first choice for the position. Rather the Oligarch owner felt that he had no
choice other than to appoint the Italian, in the wake of his successes last
term. Secondly: di Matteo must now try to implement a similar type of change as
was being attempted by his predecessor ie. moving out the older players,
bringing in younger players and developing the playing style at the club into
one that is more continental, more modern and more attractive whilst, at the
same time, getting results.
Eden Hazard has arrived, along with Marko
Marin, both high quality players in the midfield area, however, Drogba has
gone, Kalou has gone and di Matteo has already shown his distrust and/or
dislike for Fernando Torres and Daniel Sturridge. All this adds up to a striker
shortage at Stamford Bridge, Hulk has been linked all summer but that deal has
not yet happened and should it stall permanently, Chelsea will need a
contingency plan. All in all it’s hard to say how Chelsea will do but one thing
is for certain, whilst they are bound to finish in the top six, they are not
guaranteed a top four spot.
After
letting Kenny Dalglish go at the end of last season, Liverpool’s owners
appointed Brendan Rodgers to take over at the club. The Reds’ league results
were poor particularly in the first half of 2012, however, many fans feel that
last season was a little freakish, certainly in some aspects (like hitting the
woodwork a ridiculous number of times), and that in reality the club finished
in a false position.
So
far Rodgers has impressed the vast majority of fans and there is an air of
confidence and optimism around Anfield at the moment. Fabio Borini has come in
from Roma and has already scored his first competitive goal, Joe Allen was
confirmed as a Liverpool player last weekend, with Nuri Sahin expected to come
in from Real Madrid. Lucas Leiva is fighting fit, after recovering early from
an injury that kept him out for over half of last season and Luis Suarez has
committed his long term future to the club by signing a new contract. Rumours
of Agger and Skrtel leaving Merseyside appear to be just that, with the latter
set to sign a new four year deal and the former publicly expressing his desire
to remain at the club and Steven Gerrard, finally, looks like he’s back to full
fitness.
So
what can Liverpool achieve under Rodgers in this his first season? The squad
isn’t massive, however, it is likely that at least one more new face will
arrive, if not more and, with the Rodgers philosophy beginning to take shape on
the pitch, Liverpool could be a much tougher nut to crack this year. The boss’s
first priority is to make Anfield into the fortress of old and if he can come
close to achieving that then Liverpool certainly have a chance of getting that
coveted fourth spot.
Arsenal
had a terrible start to last year’s Premier League campaign. Stung by the
losses of Fabregas to Barcelona and Nasri to Manchester City (the latter well
after the season had begun), the Gunners and Arsene Wenger took a while to
compose themselves and get back to winning ways. They did so however and,
following a stellar season from front-man Robin van Persie, they finished the
season in third place, ahead of bitter rivals Tottenham.
Arsenal
face a similar transfer problem this time round as van Persie, the man who made
a top six finish possible for them last year (leave alone a place in the top
three), has publicly stated his desire to leave the club. Recent developments
have seen the Dutchman put pen to paper on a contract with bitter rivals
Manchester United, something which
Arsenal fans are ever likely to forgive.
Wenger
started his transfer activity early by signing Podolski from Cologne and Giroud
from Montpelier, both of who notched up impressive tallies in their respective
leagues last year. Neither is, however, as talented a footballer nor as
prolific a goal-scorer as van Persie. Although the two certainly possess
quality and in Podolski Wenger has picked up an incredibly experienced
international with over 100 caps for Germany at just 27 years old.
Cazorla
has been added too. The player from Valencia who many felt should have been
part of the Spain squad for Euro 2012 (not that it mattered in the end), so
perhaps the loss of van Persie may not hit Arsenal so hard, if and when it happens.
The problem with Arsenal is in defence. Koscielny and Vermaelen are strong
centre backs but back-up is extremely limited, Mertesacker is too slow and
after that you’re looking at Song dropping back. Speaking of Song, he’s been
heavily linked to Barcelona, although it remains to be seen just how much truth
is in that rumour. Szczesny is good in goal and has a very bright future but is
young and makes mistakes with his decisions and positioning, as you’d expect
for such a young keeper.
The
long and the short of it is that Arsenal need much more defensive cover. Gibbs
is not the best left-back and is regularly injured, Sagna is very good but also
a tad injury prone. Without more strength in depth in the defensive areas the
Gunners risk having their “soft centre” exposed by teams who can cope with
their attacking prowess. Top four is definitely possible but not a certainty,
it will be extremely tight.
To
the last two teams who’ll be fighting for the top six, in my opinion, are
Everton and Newcastle United. The Geordies shocked everybody last year by
finishing fifth, edging out Chelsea into sixth and finishing ahead of both the
Merseyside clubs. A big feature of Newcastle success was the way that their new
signings all hit the ground running in the Premier League and that Alan Pardew
was able to get the absolute best out of his defensive players, even when
coping with injuries and suspensions.
Cabaye,
Ben Arfa, Ba and then Cisse were fantastic going forward in the famous black
and white stripes with Krul, Danny Simpson and Colocchini excellent in defence.
Mike Ashley has spent very little so far in this window, although the club has
been heavily linked with France international Debuchy. However, they have
managed, so far at least, to keep hold of their major assets which could prove
to be very important.
The
big question for the Magpies in the upcoming season is: can they cope with
Europa League football? In the Group stage alone there are six extra fixtures
involving plenty of travel and the Thursday/Sunday fixture schedule can also
take its toll. Add to that the fact that the St. James’s Park faithful are
never happy for their team to be “also-rans” and you begin to have a potential
predicament.
Newcastle’s
only problems last year tended to come when too many of their first-teamers
were unavailable through injury, the added fixtures this year may make
repeating last year’s Premier League form very difficult. Whilst I’m not
writing them off by any means, it may be unrealistic to expect Pardew’s men to be
able to reproduce the kind of form that saw them come from nowhere to stun
everybody again this season.
Everton,
on the other hand, had a pretty poor opening to the 2011/12 season. The Toffees
got off to one of their famously slow starts, defensively they were sound
enough, however, with a limited number of strikers on the books, little in the
way of creativity and even Tim Cahill finding it difficult to score, results
stuttered before Christmas, particularly at home. However the second half of
the season was a different story entirely.
Some
wily transfer dealings by David Moyes in January saw Louis Saha leave the club
on a free and Stephen Pienaar and Nikica Jelavic come in. Pienaar arrived on
loan (his transfer has since been made permanent) and instantly added the
creative spark which had been missing in the midfield. Jelavic came from
Rangers for £5m and almost instantly displayed the credentials for which David
Moyes signed him, as the Croat went on to score nine goals in thirteen league
appearances (eight with one touch finishes).
Everton
finished the campaign in top four form and, if they can manage to get the start
of the season right for once, I can see
them getting into the top six ahead of Newcastle. The Toffees have some very
exciting players in Pienaar, Fellaini, Baines and Jelavic and a solid core of
experience with the likes of Tim Howard, Phil Neville, Heitinga, Phil Jagielka
and Tony Hibbert still at the club. With no European football to worry about
and, finally, a bona-fide goal-machine on the books sixth place is certainly a
possibility.
In
conclusion, this season it seems as if things will be tougher than ever to get
into the top six. We’d expect the usual suspects to be involved but there is,
now, no guarantee of order and there are certainly a couple of other teams who
may cause a shock, Sunderland for example. The only sure-fire prediction that
I’ll make in this part is that Manchester City will win the league, after that
the other teams in this article will have to scrap it out for Champions’ League
and Europa League spots. It promises to be very exciting viewing. Bring it on!
By Neil Patterson
Email: neil.b.patterson@gmail.com
Facebook: http://goo.gl/MJce0
Twitter: http://twitter.com/Neil1980
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