Who is most likely to win the Derby tonight?

Your views - will Kaizer Chiefs or Orlando Pirates be the winner tonight? 

Not calling for the usual rhetoric “3 mabone” fortune-telling, fuelled only by nothing but the love of our clubs. 

I am asking for some analysis – the way the coaches would approach it. List a few strengths and weaknesses of each club and how you think that will affect the game tonight. 

And if you were the coach – what kind of game should each team play to skew the odds in their favour; having said that, now your (somewhat educated) guess of the outcome.

My Opinion

 Kaizer Chiefs strengths

1. Itumeleng Khune

2. Good strikers (Last season’s top 2)

3. Creative and quick attacking midfield

4. Coach who knows them

5. Play well when they have the ball

6. Generally better at keeping team structure

Kaizer Chiefs weaknesses

Defence - Back four

Defensive play in general i.e. winning the back when they lose it

Khune is usually the busier keeper on the field in tough Kaizer Chiefs games

Other plus and negative factors; they are not trying a new system – should therefore be more comfortable under pressure; down side, easier to plan to neutralise them. Also, the big win against Spurs may have done well to boost player and coach confidence. However, VV and the players’ sense of invincibility after big wins has been their downfall in the past; e.g. Baroka FC beat Chiefs after they walloped BidVest Wits 4-0 in the Nedbank Cup; loss to Vasco and Free State Stars after beating Pirates.

Orlando Pirates strengths

1. Solid backs four

2. Good at winning the ball back all over the field

3. Pressing and ball possession means they generally control the midfield

4. Good wingers – (who may drift in & allow right & left back up the wings)

5. Unpredictable attack – nearly all the players can and have scored

6. Fluidity – more versatile players than KC. Wingers & midfielders switch flanks & roles quite often; harder to mark. Negative – can also leave costly holes and confusion when too many players are crowding one area of the field.

Orlando Pirates weaknesses

 Relatively weaker strikers

Other plus and negative factors

New coach, new system; they may be less confident under pressure; plus is that they may still be hard to plan effectively against.  Despite being treble champs, they may be the slight underdogs in the minds of SA media and some fans – who are mostly pro-Kaizer Chiefs. They may have the confidence to dominate their rivals.  Confidence gained by a sterling performance against Spurs and the treble – which have both been downplayed by some people).

Game plan: How Orlando Pirates can win it

Chiefs’ main strength is the striking power they pack in Musona and Majoro. But without the ball, it will be ineffective. So Leal should seek to neutralise that.

Leal was not around when Pirates played that 1-1 draw against Chiefs in February. In that game Pirates used Khune for target practice while Chiefs had two shots the whole game; VV said in the post match interview “I do not know why Chiefs defended so much…” I hope now he knows. Luckily the passing game Leal has introduced plays well to existing Pirates strengths – control of the midfield via pressing and high ball possession.

Pirates should play more of the passing game in the midfield to create spaces and frustrate and tire out Chiefs. No ball no attack. Pirates should press more (close down people quicker) to ensure high ball possession, stopping them from launching their own attacks.

They should use the likes of Mayambela, Segolela, Doutie to show-boat just a little (even when trailing behind). This will keep the ball, distract the opposition (the vuvuzelas following the tsamayas will also help) allowing a quick transition to fast attacking. Further, it will help the players relax more around the ball which should improve composure in the box.

If Pirates were to successfully keep Chiefs in their won half most of the game – the increased numbers in their own half will not necessarily mean they can defend well – if general defensive play is not a strength.

Game plan: How Kaizer Chiefs can win it

First thing VV should get right is the mental attitude of the players. Tell them “history counts for nothing. This will be a tough game – although I think you will win it.” Not “you can beat anyone. My team is the best”. Without the addressing the mindset, KC might not up their game enough to win the battle. They might play like they are playing Baroka FC or Nathi Lions and lose, despite that attacking power. Chiefs’ priority should be not to allow their quick attacking midfield and strikers to be pushed back too much where they cannot threaten Josephs.

Chiefs should not try and match Pirates on ball possession since Chiefs can be more effective with the little they get. They should not run too hard to get the ball in the midfield, since they will get tired and create spaces for Pirates.

But Chiefs should remain organised and push up as a unit – refusing to play in their own half. A few long balls into OP’s 18 area plus some defense-splitting passes and a few deliberate offside runs should be enough to scare the OP defence back, creating more space for Chiefs attacking midfielders to work.

Attacking through the middle might prove tough – getting the ball wide, especially in their own half, Chiefs might be able to open up space to launch quicker attacks since Pirates wingers may not be operating strongly there under Leal. All the last 5 goals conceded by Pirates either came from long balls; dead ball situations or both – Supersport United, Santos, Golden Arrows, Black Leopards and Spurs.

My prediction

I see a Pirates win. Not because I am a Bucs fan, but because I think by playing to their strengths, Bucs can neutralise Chiefs’ strength; whereas, for Chiefs to neutralise Pirates, they would need to somehow bypass the middle – by long balls etc, which is not Chiefs’ game.

By Mduduzi Mthembu